I’ve spoken about survivorship bias, the fallacy we have of only looking at those who’ve either been externally or self-selected to success. We ignore those who didn’t due to their lack of visibility. The classic demonstration of this is the story of WW2 planes coming back from bombing missions over Europe. Statistician Abraham Wald recommended reinforcing the areas of planes that were not hit, a direct contradiction from what the military recommended. His argument was that the planes that made it back did so because of where they were not hit. They were the survivors. In order to best know how to better protect the planes, we should be looking at the ones that didn’t make it back.
This also ties into the idea of the “not to do list”. Many times we spend too much time working on a bunch of new tasks when we would be better served just eliminating a few. Is there one thing you could eliminate that would have an exponential effect on your life? For me it’s simply alcohol. As long as I don’t drink things work out. If I do, things quickly move the other direction. It could be something as simple as that. Something simple that causes complex reactions. Clues.
It’s important to work to find ways to be successful at our goals. We want to investigate and collect data and analyze. But don’t allow the wrong data to inform your decisions. Make sure you aren’t investing time adding armor to your wings while leaving your most vulnerable areas unprotected. The clues are there, it’s just hard to see the right ones.
